Podcast: U.S. Pilot Shortage: What's Going
On?
Karen Walker Ben Goldstein Aaron Karp June 29, 2022
Airlines
and their representative organizations in America are expressing concerns about
a long-term pilot shortage, yet pilot unions say there’s no shortage and are
pressing for higher wages. U.S. editors at ATW and Aviation Week discuss the
opposing views.
Don't
miss a single episode. Subscribe to Aviation Week's Window Seat Podcast
in Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts and Spotify.
Rush
transcript:
Karen
Walker:
Hello
everyone. And thank you for joining us for Window Seat, our Aviation Week air
transport podcast. I'm Air Transport World and Group Air Transport
Editor-in-Chief Karen Walker. So welcome on board. Today I'm delighted to be in
Washington, DC and joined by my colleagues, Ben Goldstein, North American Air
Transport Editor at Aviation Week and Aaron Karp, Senior Editor at ATW and
Routes. Ben, Aaron, welcome and thank you for you joining us today.
Now, today we're going to be talking about the pilot
shortage in the US, is the one or isn't there? We've seen more disruptions
across US airline flights recently with hundreds of flights canceled or delayed
just as the summer travel rush really picks up. The reasons are multifold,
they're not just about a shortage of pilots. But airlines and their
representative organizations are increasingly expressing concern about a long
term pilot shortage, especially at the regional carrier level. Yet the Air Line
Pilots Association or ALPA, the union representing most of the large US
airlines, dismisses the notion that there is any shortage and blames airline
management for not raising pilot wages.
Meanwhile, in the news this week is a proposal by one
airline to reduce the number of flight hours needed for a pilot to qualify for
commercial airline flying. Ben, you covering this a lot, this whole issue.
What's going on and who's saying what?
Ben
Goldstein:
Well,
Karen, I think you've summed it up very well. The battle lines are very clear
here. On one side, we have the pilot unions, most notably ALPA, which deny
there is a pilot shortage and they instead blame the problem on low pay on
offer at the regional carriers. And on the other side, we have basically
everyone else, the airlines, the OEMs, flight training organizations, analysts,
investors. It's basically the unions against the world on this issue. And I
think that's what's been puzzling to so many people.
Karen
Walker:
Aaron,
how is this playing out among the regional carriers, and in America's smaller
communities, that they seem to be the ones that are most at risk of losing
service and carriers most at risk of not having enough pilots. Is that true?
Aaron
Karp:
Yes.
I think a good way to talk about this is to give a very recent example, and
American airlines announced that they're cutting four markets from their
network, Dubuque, Iowa, Toledo, Ohio, and Islip and Ithaca in New York. And
they were flying to two of those markets. They were flying to Chicago O'Hare,
and from the New York markets, they were flying to Philadelphia. And so
American is no longer serving those airports. Envoy Air and Piedmont Airlines,
two of their regional affiliates, were serving the route.
And so that just shows you how American has 100 aircraft
grounded, regional aircraft grounded. United has 150 regional aircraft
grounded. And so they're pulling out of smaller markets. And what will this
mean for the US airline network? I think that's sort of up in the air. I mean,
the speculation by regional airlines and smaller community airports for years
has been that this will have really damaging economic effects on small
communities, but American will point out that all of those markets they dropped
out of are within 72 miles, at the most, of another airport that they serve.
And so are we going to move into a situation where there
just aren't pilots and there aren't aircraft to operate to these markets and
instead people will just have to drive? There will be a lack of convenience.
Will it be more than a lack of convenience? I think that will determine whether
there are changes. If it's simply lack of convenience, and if the airlines
don't notice that there's a huge loss in passengers from feeder routes, it may
not be as big of a deal as they think. But the pilot shortage is going to
continue without doubt cutting markets out of the US airline network.
Karen
Walker:
Interesting.
Now one aspect of this whole debate is that ALPA seems to be framing this as a
safety issue. They're saying that pilot hiring is still way up, there's no
shortage, and they're claiming that airlines want to put safety at risk by
introducing new pilot entry and training standards. Now, to me that seems
improbable. I mean, at the end of the day, what airline CEO would want a less
safe airline? That's just not a way that any serious airline CEO would look at
his company, for obvious reasons. So, Aaron, at the center of this sort of
different training standard that ALPA is against is the FAA's 1,500 flight hour
rule and potential changes to that. Can you explain that in a sentence or two?
And what's the argument for change?
Aaron
Karp:
Yes.
After the Colgan air crash in 2009, the FAA moved and eventually successfully
implemented the 15 hour rule, meaning you have to have 15 hours of flight time
before you can be a first officer at a regional airline. The regional airlines
have argued that that rule had unintended consequences in that it brought
pilots to airlines who had been flying in very undisciplined circumstances and
they had to be retrained once they got to the airlines. And so the airlines
say, and they will say that, "We're not trying to change the 1500 hour
rule, and there's no appetite for that in Congress, but that we can make some
changes." And what they really want to say is that hours in flight
simulators are better than hours flying a small aircraft on weekends, that sort
of thing. So that's the argument that it's actually less safe to have these
pilots accumulate so many hours outside of disciplined circumstances. The
regional airlines say they'd rather have pilots who come through very
disciplined training, even if it's fewer total hours.
Karen
Walker:
So
Ben, we've had news, recent news, of a proposal that one of the airlines,
Republic, is proposed relative to this and the FAA is apparently considering.
Can you talk a little on that please?
Ben
Goldstein:
So
Republic doesn't want to get rid of the 1500 hour rule. What they're proposing
is to work within the framework of the law as it's written, which the current
first officer qualification rule allows first for different pathways, including
for the military and some accredited flight training institutions, to get an
air transport pilot certificate with less than 1500 hours, 750 hours in the
case of the military. What Republic wants is for graduates of its LIFT Academy,
which is located in Indianapolis to be able to become ATP certified pilots with
750 hours. And their argument is that their rigorous, highly selective LIFT
Academy is essentially as good and as rigorous as the military and the training
they do there. And they want to see that program recognized with a formal
pathway. Now, the Air Line Pilots Association is opposed to this proposal. They
say that this is going to undermine safety, but it does have the support of the
Regional Airline Association and some other industry groups. It's a proposal that
wants to work within the framework of the law by setting up a new pathway for
graduates of its LIFT Academy.
Karen
Walker:
Right.
And then, Aaron, can you talk about what SkyWest, they have a proposal too,
that would change things. But my understanding is, again, the unions are not
happy about that.
Aaron
Karp:
So
what SkyWest is proposing is that part, a part of their operation, a small part
of their operation, become an affiliate carrier that would be labeled as a Part
135 airline instead of a Part 121 airline. Now Part 121 is what the major
airlines are and what all the regional airlines are, basically airlines that
operate scheduled services. Part 135 carriers are everything, and there's
hundreds of them in the United States, everything from helicopter operators
doing tours of the Grand Canyon to very tiny airlines hopping between the
Hawaiian Islands. And so what SkyWest is saying, "Let's make part of our
operation a 135 commuter airline operation." And what that would do is eliminate
the 1500 hour rule. For a Part 135 carrier, you can be a first officer with 250
hours. There's no 65 hour age retirement rule. You can keep flying as long as
you pass medical exams.
And I think the ironic thing about this is that if you go
back to more than 25 years ago, all regional airlines were considered Part 135
carriers. And then the FAA, as regional airlines started flying jets, as they
started contracting with mainline airlines, as they started putting United and
Americans delivery on their airplanes, said, "You have to become 121
carriers and operate under all the rules of scheduled commercial
airlines."
The regional airlines largely went along with that. There
was one exception, and that was Jonathan Ornstein, the CEO of Mesa Airlines, who
said that this change long term was going to be devastating for the industry
because these smaller airlines wouldn't be able to operate as Part 121 airlines
over the long term. And I think if you look at what's happening now with the
pilot situation and regional airlines having to park aircraft, I think he would
say that's turning out to be true. And he has said for years this was a huge
mistake. The regional airlines should have collectively opposed this. And I
mean, I think, realistically, a 70 seat jet with American Airlines livery is
not going to be classified as Part 121. But what SkyWest is saying, "We'll
take some of our aircraft, we'll take out seats. They'll only be 30 seat
aircraft, and we'll operate on this 135 basis and that will fill gaps at
smaller communities."
Karen
Walker:
So
we're seeing these proposals coming, particularly from the regional carriers.
That's understandable because, as we said earlier, they're the ones that are
sort of seeing it become harder and harder to get the pilots they need. But
what about the low cost carriers too? The airlines like Spirit and Frontier.
That's an increasingly big share of the US market now. And of course they're
low cost carriers. So they've got a real strong eye on the bottom line. What's
this going to mean to them as they're trying to grow fast and get more pilots,
Ben? Do you see the impact here?
Ben
Goldstein:
Yeah,
well, it's going to be very bad for them. I mean, it already is very bad for
them and it is going to constrain their ability to grow at a fast rate in the
coming years. It's one of the reasons why Spirit and Frontier want to merge
together is so they can source more pilots.
So I think a big part of the problem right now is that
regional airline pilots used to go work at the ULCCs. But right now they're
going straight to work at the majors, and ULCCs, at the same time, they have
very high attrition rates and their pilots are going to the majors too. So
they're really being squeezed hard by this. And there's another effect here too.
We recently saw American's regional subsidiaries, PSA, Piedmont, and Envoy Air,
announce big pay increases with large premium pay for their pilots that
basically puts them on par with starting first officers at the majors. And
actually when you account the premium pay, they're making more than first
officers would at Jet Blue or at some of the LCCs, to say nothing of the Sprits
Airlines and Frontiers. So if these kinds of pay schemes spread in the regional
industry, it could really pressure the ULCC business model and their ability to
keep their costs low and keep their fares low. So the ULCC sector, I think, is
going to be really pressured in a lot of fronts by this pilot shortage.
Karen
Walker:
You
raise an interesting point there, Ben, about those big hikes. Those carriers
are both American Airline subsidiaries and they're pilots have won big hikes,
as you say. So then again, you've got the more squeeze on the supply and demand
chain there. So is this, bottom line, is this really just about money? I mean,
is this really where just a case of where the unions are seeing that supply and
amount squeeze. So they decided, "Okay, this is the time when we're going
to just really get those wage hikes."
Ben
Goldstein:
Well,
ALPA says that it's about safety. They credit the 1500 hour rule with the
exceptional safety record in the United States over the last 10 years, during a
period which I think there was only one passenger fatality which was not
related to pilot training. And they observed that there are 1.5 certificated
commercial pilots relative to available jobs in the United States. Although I
don't think, those are commercial pilots, but not necessarily ATP licensed
pilots. So that might be a bit misleading.
So, that's what ALPA says. They say it's about safety. Is
it really about safety? Well, I think you can debate that. I think there are
some very good arguments to be made that an hour of flight training isn't equal
to an hour of simulator training and that there are a variety of different
solutions that could be explored here, whether we're talking raising the
retirement age or immigrant visas for foreign pilots. But the common thread
here is that ALPA and the unions seem to oppose all of these solutions, and I
think that's very revealing in and of itself. I think they definitely do want
higher pay across the industry. They're very open about that. Are they putting
their own interest in terms of collective bargaining ahead of the industry's
need for supply of pilots? That's a question that I think a lot of people are
asking right now.
Karen
Walker:
So
from the other side, outside of the union where the people are, and most
importantly, the airlines are saying, "Yes, there is a shortage and we
have got to do something to grow the supply chain." What other proposals
and actions are being taken, Aaron, either taken or considered?
Aaron
Karp:
Well,
I think it's first thing to say is the airline CEOs, members of Congress who
are senior enough to make a dent are all saying, "There's no short term
solution. That we're stuck right now." So it's a matter of a long term
solution. And I think a case could be made that the pilots unions, if they look
15 years down the road and there's not enough pilots, they won't have members.
And so there's a case to be made that their approach to this is relatively
short term or short term thinking. So I don't think there is any short term
solution. One thing I would add, we talked about the Sky West wanting to be a
Part 135 carrier. There are hundreds of them in the United States and they
could start, some of them already do, operate service from say a small airport
to a major airport.
The difference is, is that you're flying on a turbo prop,
you're landing at the airport. You're often then getting off the airplane on
the tarmac, carrying your own bag into the airport, and then being treated like
you arrived on an automobile and having to go through everything again. And
having to buy your own ticket. You have to buy a second ticket with say United
and make sure your timing is right. And if your timing is off, if your first
flight is canceled, you have no grounds to be refunded for the United flight.
So it's a huge convenience factor, but you could see these smaller airlines
filling the gap a little bit, and that way someone could get to an airport, but
it would be a much harder journey.
Karen
Walker:
What
about the age limit in the US for pilots? Is there any serious consideration to
raising that cap?
Aaron
Karp:
Senator
Lindsey Graham did propose this a couple weeks ago and ALPA immediately shot it
down. And what they cited was that IKO has a 65 retirement rule. If, say,
Congress had moved to raise it to 67, it would only have included domestic
flights, but that would've helped the regional airlines. But looks like there's
no appetite for that in Congress. And it's, again, ALPA saying it's a safety
issue. And I think one other thing we should say about ALPA is that when they
take a position, it has heavy influence with members of Congress because many
of them are not experts at all in aviation. And they say, "Well, if the
Air Line Pilots Association, if the President of the Air Line Pilots
Association, who's this really experienced pilot, is saying that this is
unsafe. How can I possibly vote against what they're saying?" And so ALPA
knows it has this advantage and it plays to that advantage.
Karen
Walker:
That's
a good point. Ben, how do you see this playing out for the rest of the year? It
seems to me like there's two sides have sort of got themselves ingrained, which
ultimately just means we're just going to see more disruption. Am I right?
Ben
Goldstein:
Yeah.
I think you are right. In terms of the near term, the summer, I think we're
going to be looking at a lot of turbulence, a lot of disruption and more
canceled flights. Scott Kirby has said that he thinks that the US airlines
combined will hire 13,000 pilots this year and a similar amount next year. And
the US only produces five to 6,000 pilots per year. So this deficit is not
going away near term. And actually pilot retirements are going to peak later in
this decade so the problem is going to get worse. So we're really talking about
a multi-year problem. And like Aaron said, there are no immediate on the table
solutions, but I don't think that continuing to block conversation about what
possible solutions have been put forward, I don't think that's going to be
helpful as this crisis gets worse.
Karen
Walker:
So
more engagement needed, more actually where both sides are talking as opposed
to just hearing one argument and then that being dismissed. Ben, Aaron, thank
you so much for your insights and for joining me today. I really appreciate
that. And thank you to our listeners. I hope you'll join us again next week for
our next episode. Make sure you don't miss it by subscribing to the Window Seat
Podcast on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen. Until then, this is Karen
Walker, disembarking from Window Seat.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
American Airlines suggests things are
three times worse than United
Want to book a vacation for next summer? Or
even Christmas? Here are some troubling thoughts from America's airlines.
Things aren't looking up.
(A screenshot from an American Airlines video)
A screenshot from an American Airlines video
Have you
thought much about the future lately?
Have you made
plans -- other than deciding to quit your
job,
that is?
Wouldn't it be
wonderful to fly off somewhere with your loved ones, lie on a beach and forget
the last couple of years ever happened?
CUSTOMER
EXPERIENCE
·
He flew American
Airlines, she flew United. For both, the unthinkable happened
There is,
though, one small obstacle: Airlines. You can't be sure what they're going to
do, whether or when they'll get you to your destination. Or if they ever will.
You can't be
sure whether they'll still have staff shortages that'll lead to flight
shortages that'll lead to shortages of your temper.
So I carefully
scan the public utterings of America's great airline executives to discern just
how bad -- or, bless them, how good -- the future of airlines now looks.
Let's first
turn to United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby.
His airline is reducing the number of flights it offers. He says this is
because United wants to "do better by the customer."
A charming
thought, this. You'd think United might have come across the idea earlier.
But anyway,
when will things get better?
Well, Kirby
seemed quite clear. He told CNBC: "We're not going to get back to normal utilization and
normal staffing levels until next summer."
That's
straightforward enough. If you're already planning your next year's summer
vacation, United says things will be back to normal. Although my distant
recollection of normal suggests summer flying still offers an experience akin
to eating gravel with chopsticks.
Let's now look
at the prognostications from American Airlines.
Its CEO, Robert
Isom, stared into his personalized, first-class crystal ball and still saw many
dark clouds.
He agreed it
would be a year before the airline's bigger planes would be flying normally
again. However, he added: "I think it's
dependent on the supply chains of aircraft manufacturers and ultimately, pilot
supply to get all back in sync."
It's hard when
you have to rely on others, isn't it? But then he inserted a little more
darkness.
"From a
regional perspective, it's just going to take a little bit longer than
that," he said. "Maybe two or three years, to kind of get the supply
chain for pilots back to where we need it to be."
A little bit
longer? Three times the number of years United says things will be back to
normal?
Airlines have
been canceling flights and shutting down routes from America's smaller cities.
But the mere notion that it'll take American three years to get back to serving
customers properly may make them not make any plans at all.
Perhaps one
should commend Isom on his realism, even as one laments how badly managed his
and other airlines currently appear.
Perhaps
United's Kirby was also merely focusing on his airline's mainline services. Or
perhaps he believes United is simply in a better state than American.
American's pilots would certainly agree
with that.
It's easy to
suspect that neither CEO has much of an idea of what will happen at all.
They're offering numbers that have no necessary relationship to the fun to
come.
All U.S.
airlines demonstrated over the past year that their planning skills were
woeful. They took government money. They grasped for every bit of passenger
revenue they could when they knew they didn't have the staff to actually
operate the flights they'd sold.
Yet still,
here's Kirby trying a tinge of fearmongering to drum up sales:
"Unfortunately, there will still be fewer seats available around the whole
system because the infrastructure around aviation can't support it. You should
probably book early for Christmas. We're going to fly less so we can ensure
reliability."
Book now to
avoid disappointment? How disappointing.
We can all
blame the system. It always seems that little bit harder to blame ourselves.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Many
many thank for the get well wishes I received from PCN members. When I announced that we contracted BA5 from
our travels, I was not soliciting any sympathy or well wishes but received a lot
of them and I wish to thank you for sending along those to us. BTW, this is the
1st time infected by anything for over 2 ½ years since we have been
taking a Zinc, D3, C and Quercetin prophylaxis for that whole time. It has kept us infection free but being run
down from travel finally got us a round with BA5 variant. Again, thanks cuz its always encouraging to hear kind words and
I thank you.
What we did when we became ill:
We have believed in “Early Treatment” and on hand therapies for over two
years and so when we presented with symptoms we began the FLCCC I Care protocol
(https://covid19criticalcare.com/covid-19-protocols/i-care-early-covid-treatment/ )
immediately and in 3 days were virtually symptom free. Of course the idea of early treatment is to
attack the viral load before it explodes and to keep one from experiencing the
cytokine storm and or hospitalization.
On both counts we experienced success.
After 3 days we experienced a slow return to normal energy but now a
little over a week later feel very much back to normal. That is what we did and feel it was a very
successful protocol and too bad it is not more widely known about keeping so
many from having to go to the hospital where the medical response has been
questionable at best.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Received a number of well wishes and
some personal stories like these two, from Capt George and the 2nd from
Capt Gerald:
Re: PCN -
Slight Delay for HL 341 - hope by month's end.
Hi Mark!
That sounds very much like our story! Both Susan & I had been
VERY careful, but contracted Covid @ 4 weeks ago after an evening with another
couple, one of whom called 2 days later to say she was ill & had tested
positive.
That same day - so @ 36- 48 hours after our contact, we began to get
it. Our initial symptom was a sore throat that got rather severe. Some
runny nose but really very little congestion or other head cold type
symptoms. And we did have the fatigue and general lethargy. (We tested +
a day later, but not immediately.)
I called a local Urgent Care & they advised to come in. The
very capable PA there offered a choice of two therapeutics: Paxlovid (a Pfizer
pill) or an infusion with Monochlonal Antibodies. She stated that with
the Paxlovid, her patients generally got some good, quick relief, but that she
had seen some instances of relapse or repeat infection that was worse than the
original case. She also said she had experienced VERY good results with
the infusion of Monochlonal Antibodies, so we opted for that treatment. (Note: It
took about an hour and a half for the infusion & an hour-long
"observation period." Note also that treatment has to begin
within 5 days of symptom onset.)
We both got positive results. I felt a bit better that same evening, and
by the next day I felt hardly sick at all, but didn't have much stamina for the
better part of a week. In all, for me, it was very effective - and only a bit
less so for my wife.
Perhaps this info will be helpful to others - and may be similar to the
report you are contemplating.
Thanks and
Best Regards,
Jim George
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
geraldbsmith38@gmail.com)
Re: PCN - Slight Delay for HL 341 - hope by month's end.
Mark,
Sorry to hear that you are ailing, but it appears that you are on the same or a similar protocol that is practiced in my home. You rapidly should continue to improve.
We have been on the protocol for nearly two years.
Here is a copy of an email that I sent to the nurses at FLCCC:
OMICRON IGNORES PROPHYLACTIC MEASURES
I’m sending a report of my COVID experience so that it can be added to your data base. The information might be useful to the nurses in their weekly webinar chats.
Gerald B. Smith
Non-Vaccinated
Age: 84
Weight: 163
Gym workouts 3 days per week. Two-mile treadmill warmup followed by one hour weight training.
Three to four mile walk in sunshine 3 days per week.
No tobacco or alcohol.
18 mg Ivermectin every Wednesday and Sunday.
500 mg Quercetin daily.
120 mcg K2 (7) daily,
Align Probiotic daily,
5 mg Melatonin daily.
PreserVision AREDS 2, two X Day.
100mcg/25mcg BREO Ellipta Inhaler daily.
Centrum Silver daily.
500 mg Liposomal Vitamin C, two X Day. Now taking 1,000
mg, two X Day.
250 mg Magnesium daily,
40 mg Zinc in AIREDS 2 = 80 mg per day.
100 mcg Selenium per day.
500 mcg B-12 DOTS daily.
5,000 IU Vitamin D3 five X week. 10,000 IU Wednesday and
Sunday. Vitamin D3 lab report 4/27/22: 82.4 ng/mL.
10 – 12.5 Tab WATS Lisinopril-HCTZ daily.
Immune Mist and Scope with CDC following outings in
crowds.
15 May 2022
Exposed to COVID at church. Not aware at the time.
19 May 2022
Shortly after midnight: severe chills.
Early AM: Temperature 103.5. Headache, sore throat and cough. Severe fatigue.
Started five-day regimen of 200 mg Hydroxychloroquine in the mornings and seven-day regimen of 48 mg Ivermectin in the afternoons. Took Tylenol for two days to break fever.
Fever, sore throat and headache gone in 48 hours. Cough and fatigue persisted, but able to walk four miles on the fifth day. Energy tank nearly empty for about two weeks. Productive cough persisted, so had chest X-ray on 23 June. Results normal. Took 48 mg IVM for five days.
30 June 2022
Continuing cough. Five-day regimen Doxycycline Hyclate. No coughing after about ten days.
Continuing 18 mg Ivermectin every Wednesday and Sunday.
12 July 2022
Back to normal.
Gerald Smith
P O Box 17974
Reno, NV 89511-1034
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Since we returned from the UK this report released by the UK HSA
from a nation much more experienced then the USA on vaccines and covid making
some very interesting conclusions. I
have always said that the countries that led the vaccine and covid infection
spikes should be watched carefully as they can have a lot of information we all
can use. This report is no
exception.
Download the PDF report and check page 23 for the HSA
conclusions about vaccine efficacy, natural immunity and such keeping in mind
that the UK is ahead of the US in covid cycles, vaccine administration, and
hospital experience.
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