Finance -- HL 376 (1)

Helpful miscellaneous articles regarding our retirement plan and planning.  Like you, I review my retirement nestegg and plan from time to time.  Recently, I went though some continued education for some credentials I maintain and it occurred to me that we all could use a review about these issues.  So with your help, we will share and post articles and info that may be helpful and of interest to many of you in this section.

 

Most Large Banks and Many Insiders see a positive 2026 in the Markets!

Here are the 2026 stock market predictions from all of Wall Street's top banks

By Jennifer Sor Follow

TIMOTHY A. CLARY / AFP via Getty Images

Dec 8, 2025, 5:15 AM ET

·       

W  Wall Street's top banks are lining up to deliver their year-ahead outlooks.

·       Bullish forecasts cite robust earnings growth, AI-driven gains, and potential Fed rate cuts

·       Banks expect continued US economic growth and expanding AI investments.

The bull market turned three this year, and Wall Street thinks you should be gearing up to celebrate another big run in 2026.

Analysts at top banks have rolled out their predictions for where they think the market is headed in the coming year. Their forecasts are looking strong across the board, with most expecting US stocks to punch higher as the Fed cuts interest rates, earnings grow, and the US economy continues to chug along.

Despite some recent volatility in the tech sector, stocks are still firmly in bull market territory after back-to-back years of double-digit gains. The S&P 500 is up 17% year-to-date, and has gained 79% since the end of 2022.

Those returns have largely been fueled by the hype for artificial intelligence — a frenzy that's sparked concerns of a stock market bubble and has shown more cracks in recent weeks as investors survey high valuations and seemingly endless AI spending among top tech firms.

Even so, the market has room to grind higher, according to the top analysts.

Here's the rundown of forecasts and price targets from the big banks.

Bank of America

Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/VIEWpress

S&P 500 price target for 2026: 7,100

Upside from current levels: +3%

Core thesis: BofA's prediction is on the lower end, but it still expects S&P 500 earnings to grow 14% for the year. That should help power the market higher, but gains could be held back by factors like fewer stock buybacks, fewer Fed rate cuts than expected, and the possibility that the Fed will only cut rates if the US economy looks weak.

"In 2026, earnings will do the lift," strategists wrote in their year-ahead outlook. "Liquidity is full blast today, but the direction of travel is likely less not more," they added.

JPMorgan

ANGELA WEISS/AFP via Getty Images

S&P 500 price target for 2026: 7,500

Upside from current levels: +9%

Core thesis: The bank is eyeing above-trend earnings growth of 13%-15% for at least the next several years. That should help sustain high valuations in the stock market, alongside a boom in AI-related capital expenditures, larger shareholder payments, and fiscal stimulus from President Donald Trump's Big Beautiful Bill.

HSBC

Mike Kemp/In Pictures via Getty Images

S&P 500 price target for 2026: 7,500

Upside from current levels: +9%

Core thesis: Global stocks will keep rallying next year as the AI trade expands beyond the hyperscalers that have positioned themselves at the center of the artificial intelligence craze. Investors can expect to see earnings growth slow down for the Magnificent Seven, while earnings pick up in the rest of the S&P 500.

The broadening of the rally is generally considered a healthy trend among investors, who want to see more breadth and less reliance on just a few stocks to drive more gains.

HSBC thinks US economic growth will remain solid, a factor that should help cyclical stocks outperform.

RBC

Nick Lachance/Toronto Star via Getty Images

S&P 500 price target for 2026: 7,750

Upside from current levels: +12%

Core thesis:

The bank said it had determined its price target based on various models that project the S&P 500's return based on factors like sentiment, valuations, and economic and monetary policies.

Investor sentiment is at levels that are sending a "contrarian buy signal" for long-term investors, the bank said. Strategists added expected solid earnings growth and expected rate cuts from the Fed to prop up the market, though subdued economic growth could be a drag on stock returns.

Morgan Stanley

Mike Kemp/In Pictures via Getty Images

S&P 500 price target for 2026: 7,800

Upside from current levels: +13%

Core thesis: Stocks will get a lift next year from strong corporate earnings and a "rolling recovery" in the economy that's expected to pick up steam, Morgan Stanley strategists said. The bank referred to its previous view that the US was in the midst of a "rolling recession," where a downturn hits the economy in various sectors at different times.

"We believe that we're in the midst of a new bull market and earnings cycle, especially for many of the lagging areas of the index," strategists wrote.

Deutsche Bank

Thomas Lohnes/Getty Images

S&P 500 price target for 2026: 8,000

Upside from current levels: +16%

Core thesis: Earnings growth is expected to accelerate to around 14% next year, which will help drive the stock market higher. Valuations in the S&P 500 should be supported by higher payout ratios, fewer large earnings declines, and inflation remaining below its long-term average.

"Our demand-supply framework suggests mid-teens returns on the back of positioning rising from neutral, a continued cross-asset inflows boom benefiting equities, and buybacks rising in line with earnings," the bank wrote a client note.

                                                                                                                            

 

 

 (As with any of these informative articles, anyone who needs someone to talk to about

this very subject contact me and I can direct you to a knowledgeable advisor).

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Full post disclaimer in left column. PCN Home Page is located at: http://pcn.homestead.com/home01.html

Finance -- HL 375

Helpful miscellaneous articles regarding our retirement plan and planning.  Like you, I review my retirement nestegg and plan from time to time.  Recently, I went though some continued education for some credentials I maintain and it occurred to me that we all could use a review about these issues.  So with your help, we will share and post articles and info that may be helpful and of interest to many of you in this section.

Will Thanksgiving Week Keep the Market Rally Alive? US Stocks Enter Holiday Stretch with Strong 2025 Gains

Business Fortune
25 November, 2025

Even while investor optimism is clouded by concerns about the AI bubble and Fed uncertainty, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq enter a shortened Thanksgiving week with strong year-to-date returns.

Thanksgiving week in the US stock market: The S&P 500 is up 12.3% in 2025 through November 21, and the Nasdaq Composite is up 15.3%, with total returns somewhat higher at 13.6% and 16%. The US stock market is starting Thanksgiving week with a truncated holiday schedule and a great year well underway.

On Thursday, November 27, markets will close early at 1 p.m. ET on Black Friday. Investors are pondering whether Thanksgiving week normally brings gains, especially as fears about a possible AI bubble and uncertainties surrounding a December Federal Reserve rate decrease continue to weigh on the mood.

Thanksgiving week frequently outperforms its proportionate share of annual returns, according to a survey of the previous ten years. Thanksgiving week exceeded the Nasdaq's 28.6% rise and the S&P 500's 23.3% gain in 2024. A stronger-than-expected Thanksgiving stretch in 2023 mirrored the Nasdaq's 43.4% increase and the S&P 500's 24.2% year gain.

Despite supply-chain disruptions, China lockdowns, rising inflation, Fed tightening, and geopolitical shocks causing both indices to register sharp losses of 19.4% and 33.1% in 2022, Thanksgiving week nevertheless produced a big upside surprise.

Even while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq saw increases of 26.9% and 21.4%, respectively, in 2021, Thanksgiving week fell short as late-year volatility hinted at the subsequent decline in early 2022. Thanksgiving week exceeded expectations once more in 2020 as the S&P 500 increased 16.3% and the Nasdaq climbed 43.6% due to pandemic-driven tech demand.

Except for 2018, when both major indices finished the year down and the holiday period underperformed due to worries about a slowing economy, Fed rate hikes, and U.S.-China trade tensions, the pattern persisted in 2019, 2017, 2016, and 2015. Even in stormy years, seasonal momentum frequently exceeds broader market fears, as evidenced by the ten-year history of relative strength around Thanksgiving week. Thanksgiving week has arrived, and the calendar for US markets will be modified.

On Thursday, November 27, markets close, and on Black Friday, they close early at 1 p.m. As Investors are heading into the holiday with mixed emotions. Concerns about the AI bubble are mounting. It's possible that the Fed won't lower interest rates in December. However, stocks are still up for the year.

                                                                                                                            

 

 

 (As with any of these informative articles, anyone who needs someone to talk to about

this very subject contact me and I can direct you to a knowledgeable advisor).

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Full post disclaimer in left column. PCN Home Page is located at: http://pcn.homestead.com/home01.html

Finance -- HL 374 (1)

Helpful miscellaneous articles regarding our retirement plan and planning.  Like you, I review my retirement nestegg and plan from time to time.  Recently, I went though some continued education for some credentials I maintain and it occurred to me that we all could use a review about these issues.  So with your help, we will share and post articles and info that may be helpful and of interest to many of you in this section.

 

Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq surge to records as tame inflation cements Fed rate cut bets

US stocks surged to record highs on Friday as investors digested a crucial inflation report that helped cement expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose 1%, or over 450 points. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) gained 0.8%, while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) jumped 1.2%.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI)    47,207.12      +472.51   +(1.01%)     At close: 4:55:01 PM EDT

Date	10/24 2:52 PM
Close	47,272.30
Open	47,271.15
High	47,273.43
Low	47,269.94
^IXIC	23,230.98
^GSPC	6,802.29

1D5D1M6MYTD1Y5YAll

The September inflation data released on Friday morning came in cooler than expected. The headline Consumer Price Index rose 3% on an annual basis, the highest level since May but softer than forecasts for a 3.1% gain. Month-over-month, prices rose 0.3%, a slight cooling from August's reading and also below expectations.

The report was delayed by more than a week due to the ongoing government shutdown, and was the first major economic release since the closure began, giving investors a long-awaited pulse check on the economy.

The CPI data did little to shake the near-unanimous investor confidence in a coming rate cut from the Fed next week — and more beyond that. Around 99% of bets are on a quarter-point cut next week, while some 96% of traders expect another slash in December.

Meanwhile, President Trump injected fresh uncertainty into trade negotiations with key US partners, announcing Friday he would cancel trade talks with Canada. Trump cited a Canadian advertisement against his signature tariffs plan which features the voice of former President Ronald Reagan.

In corporates, Intel (INTC) shares pared significant gains after the chip giant reported third-quarter revenue that topped Wall Street estimates.

"We believe we're well-positioned to play a more significant role in AI," Intel's head of investor relations John Pitzer said in an interview with Yahoo Finance.

 

  (As with any of these informative articles, anyone who needs someone to talk to about

this very subject contact me and I can direct you to a knowledgeable advisor).

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Full post disclaimer in left column. PCN Home Page is located at: http://pcn.homestead.com/home01.html

Finance -- HL 373 (1)

Helpful miscellaneous articles regarding our retirement plan and planning.  Like you, I review my retirement nestegg and plan from time to time.  Recently, I went though some continued education for some credentials I maintain and it occurred to me that we all could use a review about these issues.  So with your help, we will share and post articles and info that may be helpful and of interest to many of you in this section.

 

Should the Federal Reserve cut rates next month?

Fed Chair Jerome Powell seems to have changed his mind on interest rates

 

By Phillip Molnar | The San Diego Union-Tribune

UPDATED: August 29, 2025 at 11:26 AM PDT

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently opened the door for the central bank to cut rates next month.

 

Powell had previously cited risks of inflation from tariffs and a weakening labor market as reasons for not lowering rates. “The balance of risks appears to be shifting,” he said at a conference in Wyoming.

President Donald Trump has been calling for interest rate cuts for most of his second term. Some experts, and other Federal Reserve officials, have cautioned against cutting rates because it could limit the Fed’s tools if a major economic downturn happens.

Question: Should the Federal Reserve cut rates next month?

Economists

James Hamilton, UC San Diego

YES: The latest data show a significant slowdown in new jobs, and high interest rates are weighing on real estate. Many of us feared that tariffs would lead to much higher inflation. That hasn’t happened yet, though it still could. Given the current balance of risks, I would like to see the Fed lower its main interest rate by 0.25% at the next meeting. I would wait for more data after that before deciding on the next step.

Caroline Freund, UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy

YES: Provided there are no major surprises in inflation and jobs data. The main rationale for waiting is potential price effects from tariffs, but that concern is overstated.  Imports account for just 11% of U.S. GDP and if tariffs are passed through to prices, it is a one-time effect. A 25-basis-point cut will have only a marginal effect on the economy and keep the Fed from being behind the curve should current employment and inflation trends continue.

Kelly Cunningham, San Diego Institute for Economic Research

NO: Interest rates are simply the price of borrowing money. Household and corporate debt remain at all-time highs. Interest rates, price of credit and flow of capital should be controlled by supply and demand, not centrally commanded by small committee of bankers and economists or popularity seeking politicians. Effects of lower short-term interest rates will require quantitative easing, inverting yield curve as long-term rates fall, inflation spikes and U.S. dollar further plummets as reserve currency.

Alan Gin, University of San Diego

NO: While employment growth has slowed, it is uncertain whether the slowdown will dampen the inflationary impacts of the increased tariffs. The Yale Budget Lab estimates that the tariffs will add 1.8% to inflation in the short run and 1.5% in the long run. That would put inflation near or above 4%, which is double the Fed target. This factors in lower GDP growth and higher unemployment. Lowering interest rates at the next meeting could lead to an even higher spike in inflation.

David Ely, San Diego State University

YES: The latest data released by the BLS indicates that the U.S. labor market is weaker than thought. The July estimate and the large downward revisions to the May and June numbers indicates employment is growing at a sluggish rate. The Federal Reserve still needs to worry that tariffs will push prices higher for consumers and businesses. But a weak labor market poses a more significant risk to the economy at the moment.

Ray Major, economist

YES: In response to inflation hitting 7%, the Fed raised rates to slow inflation. That job is done. With inflation now at 2.7%, it is time to start giving the average American a break on their home mortgages, car loans and credit cards. Lowering interest rates would also stimulate economic growth, create more jobs and boost the economy. Right now, the Fed is playing politics and it is hurting consumers and businesses.

Executives

Phil Blair, Manpower

NO: Not unless warranted by Jay Powell’s standards, without administration pressure. We count on Mr. Powell to use his good judgment, not to be pressured for the administration’s solely personal and political advantage.

Gary London, London Moeder Advisors

YES: But I am only answering yes because it is high interest rates that contribute to a significant slowdown in home trading. I sense that inflation is trending uncomfortably high, which will likely be reflected in future reporting, while economic growth has slowed. All mostly owed to tariffs and poor economic policy. I fear stagflation and expect an independent Fed to make this interest cut a modest one, while halting further reductions.

Bob Rauch, R.A. Rauch & Associates

YES: July’s jobs report showed only 73,000 jobs were added, with downward revisions to prior months. Unemployment was up to 4.2%, and job growth has averaged just 35,000/month over the past quarter. July’s Consumer Price Index rose 2.7% year-over-year, close to the Fed’s 2% target. Core inflation was 3.1%, slightly above target. Typically, inflation risk would say “wait,” but employment risk and the likelihood that tariff risk will soon come to an end say “yes!”

Chris Van Gorder, Scripps Health

YES: The labor market appears to be slowing now. Though other indicators might not be consistent with lowering the rate, it is time to take our foot off the brake slightly by enacting a small rate reduction. But if rates are lowered, I would hope it is because of economic indicators and not political pressure. It is vital that Federal Reserve decisions be objectively based. Our markets must have confidence in the decisions.

Jamie Moraga, Franklin Revere

YES: A key issue is whether the Fed waited too long. While many global counterparts have already eased, the U.S. has stayed in “wait and see” mode. With ongoing inflation pressures and tariff uncertainties, caution has dominated policy. But raising or cutting rates is always a balancing act — and we now seem to be at a tipping point. A gradual cut could help test the system’s resilience while supporting economic growth.

 

 

 (As with any of these informative articles, anyone who needs someone to talk to about

this very subject contact me and I can direct you to a knowledgeable advisor).

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Full post disclaimer in left column. PCN Home Page is located at: http://pcn.homestead.com/home01.html

Finance - HL 372 (1)

Helpful miscellaneous articles regarding our retirement plan and planning.  Like you, I review my retirement nestegg and plan from time to time.  Recently, I went though some continued education for some credentials I maintain and it occurred to me that we all could use a review about these issues.  So with your help, we will share and post articles and info that may be helpful and of interest to many of you in this section.

 

Dow futures rise on US-EU trade pact as investors brace for fast and furious week of earnings, China talks, Fed, GDP, jobs report, tariff deadline

By Jason MaWeekend Editor

July 27, 2025 at 6:21 PM EDT

U.S. stock futures pointed to more gains after a week filled with record highs as Wall Street cheered the U.S.-EU trade deal announced on Sunday. Investors are also bracing for a frantic week loaded with market-moving events such as earnings from top companies, key economic reports, the Fed’s policy meeting and more trade news.

Wall Street looks to begin a jam-packed week on a high note as investors cheer the U.S.-EU trade deal that was announced on Sunday.

The agreement with America’s biggest trading partner removes a key source of market uncertainty and the threat of a damaging trade war. It also adds to an increasingly bullish narrative as the S&P 500 notched five record highs last week.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 161 points, or 0.36%. S&P 500 futures were up 0.34%, and Nasdaq futures rose 0.46%.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury was flat at 4.386%. The U.S. dollar dipped 0.12% against the euro but was steady against the yen.

Trump’s deals with the EU and Japan set 15% tariffs rates on both trade parters, who have also vowed to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in the U.S.

Gold edged down 0.15% to $3,330.50 per ounce. U.S. oil prices rose 0.1% to $65.22 per barrel, and Brent crude climbed 0.1% to $68.51.

Investors will not be able to look away over the coming week as every single day could produce significant market-moving news.

High-stakes trade negotiations between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng are scheduled to start on Monday in Stockholm. That comes as a tariff truce between the two sides is due to end Aug. 12, though they are reportedly going to extend the deadline by 90 days.

Tariff drama will continue throughout the week as other countries try to reach deals with the U.S. before Friday’s deadline, when a pause on aggressive “reciprocal” rates will expire.

Meanwhile, Trump’s tariffs face legal challenges, with a court hearing scheduled Thursday on whether the president has authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose wide-ranging duties.

On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve will begin its two-day policy meeting. Analysts don’t expect the central bank to adjust rates, but Governor Christopher Waller has indicated he will dissent and call for a cut.

Chairman Jerome Powell’s press briefing on Wednesday afternoon will likely be dominated by questions related to the White House’s attacks about renovations at the Fed’s headquarters and calls from Trump allies for Powell to be ousted due to the project’s cost overruns.

Meanwhile, several closely watched datasets are due that will offer more clues on how tariffs may—or may not—be impacting the economy. On Tuesday, reports on consumer confidence, home prices, and job openings will come out.

On Wednesday, ADP’s private-sector payroll survey, second-quarter GDP data, and pending home sales are scheduled.

On Thursday, weekly jobless claims and the personal consumption expenditures report, which includes the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, are due.

And on Friday, the Labor Department’s monthly jobs report, the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing activity index, and construction spending round out the week in data.

Don’t forget earnings. Boeing announces quarterly results on Tuesday, Microsoft follows on Wednesday, while Apple and Amazon report Thursday. Oil giants Exxon Mobil and Chevron put out their numbers on Friday. 

 

 

 

 (As with any of these informative articles, anyone who needs someone to talk to about

this very subject contact me and I can direct you to a knowledgeable advisor).

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Full post disclaimer in left column. PCN Home Page is located at: http://pcn.homestead.com/home01.html

Finance -- HL 371 (1)

Helpful miscellaneous articles regarding our retirement plan and planning.  Like you, I review my retirement nestegg and plan from time to time.  Recently, I went though some continued education for some credentials I maintain and it occurred to me that we all could use a review about these issues.  So with your help, we will share and post articles and info that may be helpful and of interest to many of you in this section.

Is BitCoin All of That?  This article is pro BitCoin and opines that this is the bomb.

 

Why is Bitcoin becoming ‘central” to investment portfolios and will it last?

Story by Wajeeh Khan

Once deemed too volatile and speculative for serious investors – Bitcoin is increasingly being seen as a viable asset for mainstream portfolios, according to Philippe Laffont.

The founder of tech-focused hedge fund Coatue Management explained the reason why markets have had a change of heart about BTC as he spoke at Coinbase’s State of Crypto Summit last week.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at north of $105,000, which is more than 50% above its year-to-date low on April 9, only days after President Trump’s tariffs announcement.

Lower volatility is increasing institutional support for Bitcoin

According to Philippe Laffont, institutional attitude towards Bitcoin is improving mostly because the asset’s volatility, which historically deterred firms like Coatue from building a position, is now declining, and that too, significantly.

“It’s intriguing to me that maybe … the cost of getting into BTC is shrinking, he said, referring to the asset’s beta – a measure of its volatility relative to the broader market. Lower beta, in his view, is making Bitcoin more accessible and even attractive for cautious investors in 2025.

Additionally, the growing presence of institutional names, particularly big ones like BlackRock, that’s even launched a Spot Bitcoin ETF is being seen as a major sign of maturity in the crypto space.

Once a fringe asset, BTC is now being legitimized by major financial institutions, which is helping reduce perceived risks, Laffont added.

Comparative performance is also contributing to changing investor perceptions – Bitcoin has demonstrated relative resilience in recent macroeconomic shocks.

For example, when markets reacted to President Trump’s tariff announcement in April, Bitcoin lost only 5% versus a wider 6% decline seen in the Nasdaq Composite.

This decoupling from traditional tech-heavy indices suggests BTC may now offer diversification benefits rather than simply tracking risk-on sentiment.

BTC long-term holding behaviour signals growing confidence

Another telling indicator is how investors are treating their holdings after buying Bitcoin, Laffont noted as he addressed the Summit.

The number of wallets that held bitcoin for over a month and then sold out entirely has declined significantly, which implies a shift toward a long-term investment mindset among holders, rather than speculative day trading.

Bitcoin currently makes up less than 1% of the global net worth. According to Philippe Laffont, if the assets continue gaining credibility, “it has to become more central” to diversified portfolios.

While he once overlooked the cryptocurrency’s potential, Laffont now embraces one of its simplest characteristics: “As long as other people think it’s valuable, it gets more valuable over time.”

Bitcoin is currently up nearly 100% versus its 52-week low, but the hedge fund manager continues to see significant further upside in the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market cap.

He concluded on a rhetorical question: “why wouldn’t everyone have one, two, three or 4% of assets in Bitcoin that … protects you against inflation?”

 

           (As with any of these informative articles, anyone who needs someone to talk to about

this very subject contact me and I can direct you to a knowledgeable advisor).

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Full post disclaimer in left column. PCN Home Page is located at: http://pcn.homestead.com/home01.html