Randy Turner sent Travis Foster this
interesting & overdue notice.
From: pilithigh@gmail.com
To: thfoster6@aol.com
Sent: 6/15/2023 10:32:28 AM Eastern Standard Time
Subject: Secondary Barrier
They have been talking about this ever since 9/11. This apparently only will apply to new planes so it will be decades before the majority of airliners will get it.
FAA Requires Secondary Flight Deck Barrier
Wednesday, June 14, 2023
WASHINGTON – The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) will require a
secondary barrier on the flight deck of new commercial airplanes to ensure the
safety of aircraft, flight crew and air passengers. The final rule mandating
the additional barrier will protect flight decks from intrusion when the flight
deck door is open.
“Every
day, pilots and flight crews transport millions of Americans safely - and today
we are taking another important step to make sure they have the physical
protections they deserve,” said U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete
Buttigieg.
Aircraft
manufacturers are required to install secondary barriers on commercial aircraft
produced after the rule goes into effect.
“No pilot
should have to worry about an intrusion on the flight deck,” said Acting
FAA Associate Administrator for Safety David Boulter.
The
Biden-Harris Administration made this rule a priority in 2021. In 2022, the
FAA proposed the rule after
seeking recommendations from aircraft manufacturers and labor partners. The
rule meets a requirement of the 2018 FAA Reauthorization Act.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Summer
travel outlook 2023: Is demand taking off?
What’s the outlook for
airlines, hotels, online travel agencies, vacation rental companies and cruise
lines this summer? Find out.
J P Morgan
- Despite the
cost-of-living squeeze, consumers in most regions continue to prioritize
vacations abroad.
- Airlines are
benefiting from strong travel demand, lower fuel prices and a weaker
greenback, especially as most costs are dollar-based.
- Similarly,
the summer travel outlook looks largely positive for hotels, online travel
brands and cruise lines — but this will depend on the resilience of the
consumer and their willingness to travel in the coming months.
The 2023 summer travel season
will soon be in full swing, and the uncertain macro environment does not appear
to be dampening consumers’ vacation plans. Indeed, the World Travel &
Tourism Council (WTTC) forecasts that the global travel and tourism sector will
reach US$9.5 trillion in 2023 — just 5% below 2019 pre-pandemic levels.
The positive summer travel
outlook is echoed by data from J.P. Morgan Research. The third edition of
the Cost of Living survey — which polled 5,000 respondents across the U.S. and
Europe in March 2023 — suggests that vacations continue to be a relative
priority for consumers, ahead of other non-essential items. In particular,
trips abroad are growing in popularity. In the U.K., the percentage of
respondents choosing long vacations abroad increased marginally in March, while
the percentage of those opting for staycations decreased. The U.S. saw a
decrease in long vacations abroad, but an increase in minibreaks abroad — and a
deceleration in domestic travel.
“According to our proprietary
data, U.S. domestic travel revenue in the second quarter of 2023 is starting to
pace toward that of the second quarter of 2022, but this is largely offset by
surging international demand. It’s important to note that most international
markets were closed to Americans last summer, which caused significant domestic
substitution,” said Jamie Baker, U.S. Airlines and Aircraft Leasing Analyst at
J.P. Morgan. “This largely reflects geographic trends beginning to
normalize after last year’s period of significant abnormality.”
Consumers
continue to prioritize vacations abroad
In March 2023, consumers in the
U.K. and Continental Europe said they are prioritizing long vacations abroad,
while those in the U.S. indicated a preference for minibreaks abroad.
Travel trends are slightly
different in China, where consumers continue to prioritize domestic getaways —
although this looks set to change. “We believe China’s reopening bodes well for the
restoration of international flight connectivity and the revival of outbound
tourism from the second half of 2023,” said Karen Li, Co-Head of Hong Kong
Equity Research and Head of Asia Infrastructure, Industrial and Transport
Research at J.P. Morgan. “The country’s full international recovery will
take place in 2024.”
The
outlook for airlines this summer
Naturally, resurgent summer
travel demand is a tailwind for the airline industry, which is enjoying strong
ticket sales. Airlines are also benefiting from lower fuel prices and a weaker greenback, especially as many
costs are dollar-based.
“Although estimates across the
board have moved up materially, the relatively benign fuel environment combined
with yield outperformance still leaves scope for earnings upgrades across our
coverage,” said Harry Gowers, European Airlines and Travel Retail Analyst at
J.P. Morgan. “Consumers are proving resilient to the cost-of-living crisis, and we expect the
strong demand environment to continue into the summer months.”
In addition, airline capacity
for both short- and long-haul flights in Europe remains below 2019 levels due
to ongoing staffing and aircraft shortages. This is creating a supply-demand
imbalance, helping to push airfares higher.
“The biggest risk to a great
summer of profitability for the airline industry continues to be whether the
system can cope with the level of demand. Operational disruption and
widespread flight cancellations, similar to what we saw
last summer, also pose a constant risk,” Gowers said. “But overall, bar any
external shocks, the setup into summer 2023 continues to look encouraging.”
Overall, bar any external
shocks, the setup into summer 2023 for the airline industry continues to look
encouraging.
Harry
Gowers, European Airlines and Travel Retail Analyst, J.P. Morgan
Hotels
have staying power this summer
Resilient summer travel demand
also spells good news for the hotel industry. “European hotels have had a good
run year-to-date, up circa 25% on average and outperforming the MSCI Europe
Consumer Discretionary Index by circa 10pts,” said Estelle Weingrod, Head of
European Leisure Research at J.P. Morgan.
While overheads are increasing
due to inflation, hotels are successfully passing on higher costs to consumers,
as seen in higher RevPAR (revenue per available room). “When it comes to
RevPAR, momentum remains supportive overall versus a comparable 2019 period,”
Weingrod noted. In March 2023, RevPAR in the U.S. was 114% of 2019 levels (in
USD); the figure was 123% in the U.K. (in GBP), 115% in Continental Europe (in
EUR) and 98% in APAC.
In addition, first quarter
results across J.P. Morgan’s coverage universe have been largely positive.
However, this is in part due to easy year-over-year comparisons — the hotel
industry was heavily impacted by the Omicron variant in early 2022. “We will
continue to assess positioning as solid reporting within the space will likely
move expectations up over time, raising the bar on the quarters ahead,”
Weingrod said. “Also, hotel shares typically start to underperform when RevPAR
starts to decelerate, which should happen from the second quarter of 2023
onward as comps become more challenging.”
A
mixed summer for online travel brands
Similarly, the outlook for the
online travel market looks largely positive for summer 2023. “Most of the
online travel names in our coverage universe saw a strong start to the year. We
believe overall online travel demand remains healthy into peak summer travel,
with limited signs of a macro-related slowdown despite some softness witnessed
in the overall consumer,” said Doug Anmuth, Head of U.S. Internet Research at
J.P. Morgan.
However, while online travel
agencies are poised to enjoy strong summer travel momentum, some vacation
rental companies could experience a deceleration through 2023. “This is as the
vacation rental industry normalizes from 2021 and 2022 highs, coupled with the
possibility of limited supply growth,” Anmuth noted.
Overall, sustained demand will
be a key concern for the sector in 2023. “Our checks suggest engagement and
travel search activities are mostly in line with normal seasonality, showing
that demand remains stable,” Anmuth said. “However, with a minor recession expected
in the second half of 2023 by J.P. Morgan economists, we believe the
health of the consumer and their willingness to travel remain critical for our
online travel names.”
“
We believe the health of the consumer and their
willingness to travel remain critical for our online travel names.
Doug
Anmuth, Head of U.S. Internet Research, J.P. Morgan
The
cruise industry makes a recovery
The cruise industry, too, is on
the rebound after a lengthy period of COVID-19 restrictions. “Our fieldwork and
recent management access across the Big Three cruise operators point to
fundamental momentum year-to-date, with a record-breaking wave season [the time
of year when cruise lines run their best sales] led by broad-based demand
across customer segments, regions and customer demographics,” said Matthew
Boss, Head of Department Stores, Specialty Softlines and Leisure at
J.P. Morgan. Additionally, in April 2023, Chase credit card data for the
“Other Travel and Entertainment” category, which includes cruise-related
spending, tracked +47% year-to-date versus 2019.
This travel recovery is being
driven by several factors, including higher ticket prices, the growth of the
experience economy — where consumers prioritize spend on experiences than on
material items — and a more premium fleet offering within the cruise industry.
“Around 25 to 30 older ships were disposed of during the pandemic, raising
consumer cruise perception and overall pricing power,” Boss observed. “Overall,
while the pandemic was the largest demand shock in the history of the cruise
industry, we see the industry benefiting over the next three years from these
drivers.”
The
cruise industry is rebounding post-pandemic
After plunging during the
COVID-19 pandemic, the total number of global ocean cruise passengers is
expected to increase significantly in 2023 and continue rising through 2027.
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