From: David L. Roberts
Date: 5/7/2016 12:48:43 AM
To: MY DELTA FRIENDS
Subject: Our New Age of accelerating knowledge and
inventions
This is a remarkable
essay describing our new age of accelerating knowledge and inventions. Dave
Welcome to the exponential age!
In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide.
Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt.
What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 years - and most people don't see it coming. Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on paper film again?
Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time, before it became way superior and got mainstream in only a few short years. It will now happen with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs.
Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution.
Welcome to the Exponential Age.
Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.
Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world. Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.
Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected. In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% less lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain.
Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 time more accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.
Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver's license and will never own a car. It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that. We can transform former parking space into parks. 1,2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 100,000km, with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 10 million km. That will save a million lives each year.
How will teenagers go parking without cars ?
Most car companies might become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels. I spoke to a lot of engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; they are completely terrified of Tesla.
Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.
Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.
Won't need as many garages if fewer people have cars, so living in the city may become more attractive as people like being around other people. That won't change.
Electric cars will become mainstream until 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all cars will run on electric. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can only now see the impact. Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. The price for solar will drop so much that all coal companies will be out of business by 2025.
What will we do to make eyes and buttons for our snowman ?
With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter. We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.
Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There will be companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breath into it. It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medicine, nearly for free.
3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from 18,000$ to 400$ within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies started 3D printing shoes. Spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.
At the end of this year, new smartphones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home. In China, they already 3D printed a complete 6-story office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.
Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have that?" and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner? If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st century.
The world's oldest profession will still be around, unless replacement robots are created.
Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.
Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all days on their fields. Aeroponics will need much less water. The first petri dish produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore. There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).
There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood you are. Until 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when they are telling the truth and when not.
Bitcoin will become mainstream this year and might even become the default reserve currency.
Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more that one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long long time, probably way more than 100.
The world has always had an overpopulation problem within recent history, and all this will make it worse. Technology may grow by leaps and bounds, but human enculturation will not. We will have the same political greed for power and control, others kicking back, and wars will continue. The new technology will be evident in the tools of war, and the death rate could be staggering. Continued overpopulation will make cemeteries unpopular and there will be a push to replace them with something that does not take up space. Or continuing rent will need be paid to stay there.
Education: The cheapest smartphones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia. Until 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smartphone. That means, everyone has the same access to world class education. Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child learns at school in First World countries. We have already released our software in Indonesia and will release it in Arabic, Swaheli and Chinese this Summer, because I see an enormous potential. We will give the English app for free, so that children in Africa can become fluent in English within half a year.
This assumes kids want to learn rather than play games on their phones and just socialize.
Author: Unknown
Welcome to the exponential age!
In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide.
Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt.
What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 years - and most people don't see it coming. Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on paper film again?
Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time, before it became way superior and got mainstream in only a few short years. It will now happen with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs.
Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution.
Welcome to the Exponential Age.
Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.
Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world. Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.
Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected. In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% less lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain.
Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 time more accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.
Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver's license and will never own a car. It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that. We can transform former parking space into parks. 1,2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 100,000km, with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 10 million km. That will save a million lives each year.
How will teenagers go parking without cars ?
Most car companies might become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels. I spoke to a lot of engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; they are completely terrified of Tesla.
Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.
Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.
Won't need as many garages if fewer people have cars, so living in the city may become more attractive as people like being around other people. That won't change.
Electric cars will become mainstream until 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all cars will run on electric. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can only now see the impact. Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. The price for solar will drop so much that all coal companies will be out of business by 2025.
What will we do to make eyes and buttons for our snowman ?
With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter. We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.
Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There will be companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breath into it. It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medicine, nearly for free.
3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from 18,000$ to 400$ within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies started 3D printing shoes. Spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.
At the end of this year, new smartphones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home. In China, they already 3D printed a complete 6-story office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.
Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have that?" and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner? If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st century.
The world's oldest profession will still be around, unless replacement robots are created.
Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.
Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all days on their fields. Aeroponics will need much less water. The first petri dish produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore. There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).
There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood you are. Until 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when they are telling the truth and when not.
Bitcoin will become mainstream this year and might even become the default reserve currency.
Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more that one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long long time, probably way more than 100.
The world has always had an overpopulation problem within recent history, and all this will make it worse. Technology may grow by leaps and bounds, but human enculturation will not. We will have the same political greed for power and control, others kicking back, and wars will continue. The new technology will be evident in the tools of war, and the death rate could be staggering. Continued overpopulation will make cemeteries unpopular and there will be a push to replace them with something that does not take up space. Or continuing rent will need be paid to stay there.
Education: The cheapest smartphones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia. Until 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smartphone. That means, everyone has the same access to world class education. Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child learns at school in First World countries. We have already released our software in Indonesia and will release it in Arabic, Swaheli and Chinese this Summer, because I see an enormous potential. We will give the English app for free, so that children in Africa can become fluent in English within half a year.
This assumes kids want to learn rather than play games on their phones and just socialize.
Author: Unknown
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
From: dbina@comcast.net
To: dbina@comcast.net
Sent: 8/31/2016 5:56:59 P.M. Central Daylight Time
Subj: [USNA-AT-LARGE] Famous Sailor Bars
To: dbina@comcast.net
Sent: 8/31/2016 5:56:59 P.M. Central Daylight Time
Subj: [USNA-AT-LARGE] Famous Sailor Bars
You’d really have to had
contact with Naval Aviators during the Vietnam era or in some other major
wartime environment to fully appreciate what is documented below. The
following exposé was written by a Navy F-8 Crusader pilot, who was
ceremoniously presented with the coveted Black Max award on several
occasions. The Crusader is a single engine fighter aircraft
affectionately referred to as the “Flying Stove Pipe,” which contributed
immensely to the Navy carriers’ war effort in Vietnam.
The
author, a retired attorney and former airline pilot, writes in rather sarcastic
terms responding to an original posting by a Navy Submariner bewailing the
closure of some renowned bars patronized by Naval officers and enlisted
personnel during the Vietnam era and afterwards.
I
suspect that the Air Force, Army (helicopter, etc.), Marine Corps
(and Coast Guard?) pilots also have their stories to tell.
08/18/16 1027
USNA-At-Large:
Disgusting! I am shocked and appalled! I heard about such
debauchery, but always thought it was embellished. Now this narrative is
the R-rated version. Let me assuage the fears of you ladies, officers,
and gentlemen about the monastic lifestyle of Navy fighter pilots of
yesteryear.
First, my squadron, VF-194 (The Legendary Red Lightnings), tried to set an
example for the rest of the Fleet. Since the statutes of limitation have
expired, let me just give you the highlights of the Red Lightning (call sign
"Red Flash") social structure:
* Individual call signs: Hot Dog (me), Gator, Maggot, Buzzard, Porky, Taco, Brillo, Spanky, Sheepdog, Master (last name Bates), Burger, Crusher, Rat, and Devil. They may or may not be descriptive of their owners.
* Squadron awards: The Black Max. Given for social conduct above and beyond the call of indecency. Plaque awarded, and corresponding patch to be worn on flight jacket.
* Favorite shore-based hangouts: The East Inn Club (Olongapo, Philippines); Dragonboat Bar (Hong Kong Hilton); any bar in the Wanchai district of Hong Kong (HK); the Royal Hawaiian Hotel (Honolulu, HI); Ft. DeRussy (Waikiki); any disco in Kowloon, HK; Marine Corps Recruit Depot O'Club (San Diego, CA); Miramar O'Club (San Diego, CA); Chretin's Cantina (Yuma, AZ); Bully's (La Jolla, CA); and the infamous, original Cubi Pt. O'Club (Naval Station Subic Bay, Philippines). Personally, I always avoided such places, and spent my time in the Christian Science Reading Rooms.
* Individual call signs: Hot Dog (me), Gator, Maggot, Buzzard, Porky, Taco, Brillo, Spanky, Sheepdog, Master (last name Bates), Burger, Crusher, Rat, and Devil. They may or may not be descriptive of their owners.
* Squadron awards: The Black Max. Given for social conduct above and beyond the call of indecency. Plaque awarded, and corresponding patch to be worn on flight jacket.
* Favorite shore-based hangouts: The East Inn Club (Olongapo, Philippines); Dragonboat Bar (Hong Kong Hilton); any bar in the Wanchai district of Hong Kong (HK); the Royal Hawaiian Hotel (Honolulu, HI); Ft. DeRussy (Waikiki); any disco in Kowloon, HK; Marine Corps Recruit Depot O'Club (San Diego, CA); Miramar O'Club (San Diego, CA); Chretin's Cantina (Yuma, AZ); Bully's (La Jolla, CA); and the infamous, original Cubi Pt. O'Club (Naval Station Subic Bay, Philippines). Personally, I always avoided such places, and spent my time in the Christian Science Reading Rooms.
Now, in spite of the squadron's rigid decorum when ashore, there were a few
unfortunate incidents---which usually resulted in an award of the Black
Max. Perhaps the Top Ten are:
1)
Senior Lieutenant (Is there such a thing?) falls in love in Olongapo and
insists on going home to meet the lovely's parents. Robbed after passing
out, he wakes up with a rooster crowing on his chest and wallet stripped of ID
and cash. Gains entry to Subic base by showing Marine guard his Playboy
Club card.
2)
Commanding Officer becomes infuriated when denied a Navy car to return to the
ship (Where is Uber when you need them?) from O'Club. Steals base police
vehicle, and after a high speed police chase, crashes vehicle through wall of
O'Club. Transported to ship in paddy wagon. CO placed in hack by
CAG.
3)
Certain junior officers re-paint MCAS Yuma runway with huge red letters at
night to read "VF-194" instead of "21 R". Also
painted red lightning bolt on base water tower, then nearly destroyed BOQ with
a fire extinguisher and fire hose fight. Squadron CO arrested and placed
in hack. Squadron exiled from ever returning to Yuma by the base CO.
4)
The Buzzard became hopelessly drunk at Miramar O'Club's bar, while retired
officers and their wives were dancing in the adjoining ball room. Drops
trou, moons dance floor, and falls into dance floor, laughing, with pants
around ankles. Placed in hack and almost court-martialed; saved by a
sympathetic COMNAVAIRPAC ("What the hell--he's a Crusader pilot.
He'll probably get killed anyway, so let him go on cruise.")
5)
At Porky's going-away party (leaving active duty), he punches out both the
current and former COs. When ordered to report the next day for Captain's
Mast, he replies, "I'm a civilian." He became an airline pilot.
6)
During a weekend in Tokyo at the Sanno R&R hotel, the LT in #1 above fell
in love with a Swedish SAS flight attendant. After she left the bar and
went to her room, she refused to answer his knocks on the door. He opened
the window to his own room, and did a "human fly" walk on the pigeon
ledge, working his way around to her room. He slipped into her room, and
she emerged from the shower to throw him to the floor and beat him
mercilessly. She apparently was a karate black belt. He begged,
"Please stop, lady, I just want to leave!" Since she spoke
Swedish, and no English, the beating continued. He was grounded for a
month with two broken ribs.
7)
The air wing commander (CAG) had a few too many nightcaps at the old Cubi
O'Club, and accosted a burly Marine 1/LT grunt at the bar: "I'm
Billy Phillips, I'm the world's greatest fighter pilot, and I can have your
ass!" The Marine knocked him to the floor, unconscious. CAG
left the next morning for Hong Kong in the COD, sporting a huge black
eye. My Skipper's comment: "Charming."
8)
In the hot living spaces of the old Navy carrier, USS Ticonderoga, beer
supplies don't last long. (Yes, there was illegal alcohol aboard ship.) The Buzzard was tapped to fly into Cubi with a
flak-damaged F-8, and then to return when repaired. His shopping list was
several cases of Heineken's in cans, to be transported in the bird's spacious,
but unpressurized ammo compartment. Unfortunately, he flew from Cubi to
Yankee Station at too high an altitude, and the beer froze. Upon landing
on the ship, the thawing beer exploded and he taxied to the bow with beer foam
flowing down the side of the aircraft. When the Air Boss asked what that
was, our Ops officers told him it was hydraulic fluid.
9)
After a successful Alpha Strike into Hanoi, the pilots of both fighter
squadrons gathered in our Skipper's stateroom for refreshments. One of
the sister squadron's pilots (USNA '61), whose callsign was "Jaws,"
became overly imbibed and bit the Skipper on the shoulder in an act of
brotherly love. Skipper was grounded for about two weeks and Flight
Surgeon made him get rabies shots.
10)
After a bad night in Olongapo, The Buzzard overslept in the Cubi BOQ and missed
the ship's departure. Lacking any flight gear, he raced to the flight
line clad in barong, chinos, and loafers. He talked the chief into giving
him an aircraft ("which the ship wants on board"). When the
ship turned into the wind offshore to receive the COD, The Buzzard zipped into
the break and landed also, while the tower was confused. When he taxied
past the tower, the Air Boss, now with one more F-8 than he had room for,
noticed Buzzard had no flight gear on except an old helmet. Our Ops officer
said it "was a custom Hong Kong flight suit."
As RADM Tarrant (Frederic March) said in "Bridges at Toko-Ri," "Where do we get such men?" In reply many years later, one Naval Aviator uttered “. . . in any bar!”
As RADM Tarrant (Frederic March) said in "Bridges at Toko-Ri," "Where do we get such men?" In reply many years later, one Naval Aviator uttered “. . . in any bar!”
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Delta Air Lines just gave its employees another pay raise
Benjamin Zhang Nov. 15, 2016, 12:28 PM
On Tuesday, Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian announced that all eligible employees will receive a 6% raise effective April 2017.
Including the 18.5% raise Delta employees received in 2015, the airline's employees have seen their base pay increase nearly 25% over two years.
In addition, Delta will boost automatic 401K matching to 3% while continuing dollar-per-dollar matching on the first 6% of an employee's income.
In a memo to the airline's 80,000 employees obtained by Business Insider, Bastian wrote:
"Thank you for the outstanding operational and financial results you continue to deliver for Delta. This performance, driven by the exceptional service you provide our customers each day, continues to set our airline apart from our competitors and strengthen our brand.... We are delighted to be able to continue to share the rewards of your hard work with you. It’s well deserved."
Earlier this year, eligible Delta employees received a portion of the company's $1.5 billion profit sharing scheme which equates to roughly 21% of their annual compensation. According to Delta, the airline has paid out a total of $4.1 billion in profit-sharing and other performance rewards over the past five years.
Even though the US airline industry has seen business slow due to economic softness, political instability, and currency fluctuations, Delta has remained surprisingly resilient. Even though the Atlanta-based airline's third quarter profit fell 4%, it's profits for the first nine months of the year is still up 6% over the same period last year to $3.75 billion.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Delta Air Lines pilots begin voting on new labor contract
Associated Press
November 10, 2016 — 8:00am
ATLANTA — Delta Air Lines pilots have started voting on a
proposed new labor contract that would give them pay raises of 30.2 percent
over four years.
If they vote in favor of the deal, the 13,000 pilots would
get immediate pay raises of 18 percent when the contract takes effect,
retroactive to Jan. 1, 2016.
Then, on top of that, they would get a 3 percent raise in
2017, another 3 percent raise in 2018 and a 4 percent raise in 2019.
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports the Air Line Pilots
Association union has been pushing for raises to make up for pay cuts of as
much as 50 percent that pilots sustained during the company's financial
struggles and bankruptcy a decade ago.
The pilots can cast their ballots through Dec. 1.
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