Hangar Flying - HL 247 (5)

Boeing 737MAX First Flight

Larger image @ http://www.airliners.net/photo/Boeing/Boeing-737-8-Max/2771729/L/

(Longer NLG is certainly noticeable…rd)

http://www.boeing.com/commercial/737max/first-flight/  4:11

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Pilot Shortage Threatens To Slow U.S. Airline Growth

Elizabeth Souder, FORBES CONTRIBUTOR
By Brian Prentice, Partner, and Philippe Gouel, Principal

U.S. airlines are in the early stages of a pilot shortage that could boost labor costs and even constrain growth.

Unless airlines find ways to work with partners to cultivate a pilot pipeline, they could face difficult, even volatile, competition for experienced pilots because the current regulatory and industry situation can only yield about two-thirds of the pilots the U.S. will need in the next 20 years. That could mean constrained airline revenue, higher fares, or both. Kids, get your pilots licenses, because this could be the career of the 2020s and 30s.

Pilots sit in the cockpit of a VietJet Air A320 operated by VietJet Aviation Joint Stock Co., at Noi Bai International Airport in Hanoi, Vietnam, on Sunday, June 1, 2014. VietJet, Vietnam's only privately owned airline, may seek to raise $400 million to $500 million in an initial public offering next year as it takes delivery of as many as 100 additional planes.

The pilot profession is highly regulated to drive a high level of safety, with laws dictating the level of experience and proficiency a pilot must acquire before flying a commercial aircraft, as well as when and how a professional pilot may work. This constrained environment has always made it difficult for the industry to meet the ebbs and flows of demand. New regulations further constrain the availability of new pilots. Now, as demand for air travel grows rapidly (global commercial airline capacity rose more than 6 percent last year, according to Oliver Wyman's Airline Economic Analysis) many aviation insiders see the number of pilots in training and the future demand for commercial pilots diverging.

Leading airline executives are considering a new approach to the problem by forming partnerships with operators, training providers, and even regulators to shape the pipeline of pilots in training. Some major carriers and large regional airlines are well positioned to exploit these opportunities.

The demand for pilots by U.S. airlines is likely to outstrip supply.

Pilot Pipeline
Becoming a commercial airline pilot is a time-intensive process that requires academic instruction, flight experience, numerous certifications and, typically, a progression of different flight-related jobs to gain the right experience. In the past, commercial pilots needed at least 250 flight hours, which takes at least six months and can cost up to $100,000. U.S. pilots have traditionally absorbed these costs themselves, sometimes by combining the training with college degree programs. Prior to August 2013, pilots who had completed this stage of training were eligible to become U.S. commercial airline co-pilots. Outside of the U.S., many international airlines sponsor student pilots and either pay for this training or offer loans with favorable terms associated with future employment at the sponsoring airline.

New regulations introduced in 2013, designed to increase pilot proficiency, mandate that co-pilots working for commercial airlines hold airline transport pilot (ATP) certificates. This typically requires 1,500 flight hours and other experience gained by working at lower-paying pilot jobs. These new regulations make commercial airlines dependent on a set of aviation segments that provide the necessary experience but that are not elastic to growth in demand by the airlines and other career-employment companies. Even a perfectly efficient system could only provide the experience required for two-thirds of the pilots needed in the U.S.

The effect of the new regulations is further compounded by the fact that, according to the U.S. Government Accountability Office, the military, traditionally the largest source of airline pilots, now accounts for only 30 percent of new airline pilots. Further, the supply of military pilots will likely continue to shrink as military branches roll out programs to incentivize pilots to stay longer.

Pilot Demand

As the pilot career pipeline becomes constrained, the commercial airline industry's demand for pilots is rising. Oliver Wyman's 2016-2026 Global Fleet & MRO Market Forecast expects the number of commercial aircraft in service in the U.S. to rise 7.7 percent during the next 20 years to 8,067. The forecast expects the number of commercial aircraft in the global fleet to rise 40 percent to 34,437 aircraft.

Airlines are adding more airplanes just as a wave of pilots nears retirement and regulations on pilot duty times have tightened. The industry's appetite for new ATP-rated pilots is at an all-time high, and Boeing BA +1.69% Co. estimates U.S. airlines will demand about 95,000 pilots in the next 20 years. (5,000/yr...rd)

Of course, U.S. pilots also fly for international airlines and corporate fractional flight operations, further boosting demand. Europe is expected to need 95,000 pilots, and Asiawill likely need 226,000.

Juicing the Pipeline

Airline operators can follow several philosophies on managing the pilot pipeline. Some airlines may buy their way out and offer higher salaries, incentives, and benefits to pilots. For others this will be too costly and could upend their business. Such carriers must consider strategies to recruit pilots in a more competitive and constrained environment. This could entail developing programs with vocational or collegiate flight schools, developing more formalized feeder programs with regional partners, or financing the next generation of qualified pilots. However, these options are also costly.

In the long term, the industry could work to influence regulations, but this could take years and might not yield a superior paradigm. Carriers will still need to consider what they can offer pilots both in terms of compensation and work rules. Regional carriers, which traditionally offer lower pat rates, may see high attrition as demand from majors grows. Regionals will need to explore alternatives including productivity improvements, enhanced pilot compensation and collaboration with mainline partners in order secure their supply of qualified pilots. Major airlines will need to contemplate strategies to protect their pipelines from poaching by competing carriers. Similarly, even with industry standard rates of pay, low-cost carriers may see attrition from the bottom of their seniority lists as pilots pursue more compelling opportunities with majors or international carriers.

The pilot pipeline will adapt to the new marketplace and passivity will not be rewarded. The smart airlines are exploring stronger, scalable relationships within the pipeline, namely with pilot training organizations. These types of relationships could be the key differentiator for airline success.

Brian Prentice is a partner in Oliver Wyman's aviation practice, and he is based in Dallas. Philippe Gouel is a principal with the practice, and he is based in Chicago.

 (ALPA sez ‘no shortage’...rd)

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From: Dick Diller <dick@thedillers.net>
To: Chris Diller <chris.diller@wisconsin.gov>; Cori Diller <cdiller7@me.com>; Angie Diller Crosby <angela.diller@curtismetal.com>; Bob Diller <bobdiller@comcast.net>; Emily Diller <ej@thedillers.net>; LOUIS <lsmatjasko@msn.com>; Ken Vernon <vmrbones95th@aol.com>; Dixie (Janis) Delk <janisdelk@comcast.net>; John Borling <jlbviking@yahoo.com>; David Greenberg <hdgreenberg@earthlink.net>; Amarchjr@aol. com <amarchjr@aol.com>; Peyton Cole <peyt1@suddenlink.net>; Richard Colby <alice.colby@yahoo.com>; Brian Daneilson <danielson_brian@hotmail.com>
Sent: Tue, Jan 26, 2016 11:51 am
Subject: {SpadNet} ≋ ✟ ≋ Sad News, Ed Larson, F-105F WILD WEASEL flies West

Be sure to scroll down to the ejection picture. I've never seen anything like it.

In the picture of two men, MOH winner Colonel Bud Day is on the right. 

For those who don't know, the Weasels were specially equipped aircraft, in this case, two seat F-105Fs, that went after SAMs.

Dick

FYI:  Ed Larson, an extraordinary F-105F Wild Weasel 'nose gunner' has passed.

In his honor and memory, I've attached e-mail correspondence and photos regarding Ed and his EWO/Bear, Mike Gilroy [Air Force Cross].

~ Godspeed ~

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Email   flyplayne@bellsouth.net

Comments - Received this from a friend the other day. Hard to believe it has been 100 years.

Joel Payne B767A [ret.]

Note that the Fokker the Baron was flying was a tri-plane, while most of the RNAS aircraft were bi-planes. Of interest Is the following information about the aircraft and a statement from Von Richthofen concerning his plane:  The Albatros series were beautiful aircraft, but that beauty was apparently only skin deep. The pilots liked them because they were a advance on the Fokker Eindeckers and Halberstadt D2's they had been flying. But lower wings soon started folding when Albatross went to the D3, When it happened to Richthofen on Jan. 17, 1917, and he found out it had happened 3 times on the same day to Jasta Boelche pilots, who weren't quite as lucky as him. He went back to a old Halerstadt D2, and flew it for two months, until Albatros somewhat fixed the problem.  Albatross replaced the D3 with the D5 in May of 1917, which while faster, was slower in rate of climb than the D3, and still had the lower wing flutter problem. Aerodynamic flutter wasn't well understood at the

  time. It wasn't that the lower wing was weak, it had a single spar that was too far back in the wing, and would begin to flutter from aerodynamic pressure at speeds usually encountered in steep dives. If the pilot noticed the  buffeting from the flutter and slowed down immediately he might prevent wing failure. Richthofen disliked the D5 so much he wrote his friend Oblt. Falkenhayn in July, 1917, " The DV is so obsolete and ridiculously inferior to the English that one can't do anything with this aircraft. But the people at home have not brought out anything new for almost a year, except for this  lousy Albatross, and we have remained stuck with the DIII".

  The Red Baron... 100  year old film. The following is a rare piece of film, 100 years old. It  shows Baron Von Richthofen, doing an external inspection prior to a mission, as well as his putting on a flying suit prior to a flight in cold weather. If you look close you will also see Hermann Goering.  The Baron was shot  down on 21 April 1918 by Roy Brown of the Royal Navy Air  Services, a prelude of the R.A.F. The Aussie's also claimed that one of their machine gunners on the  ground shot the Baron down; however, UK & Aussie Doctors, after an autopsy, stated that the fatal bullet was shot from above.  The author of this piece has been very involved as a Director of the Roy Brown Museum in Carleton Place, the home town of Roy.  Many letters were written over the past 3-4 years and, finally, Roy Brown was inducted into Canada's Aviation  Hall  of Fame on 4 June 2015.  To think this film  almost 100 years old!  If you're interested in  history or aviation, you should not miss t

  his footage. It was just posted online, and I've never seen anything like it. It's from 1917, an up-close and personal look  at the most legendary combat pilot who ever lived, the infamous 'Red Baron', Manfred Von Richthofen.

Watch this extremely rare old footage and re-live history.

  https://shar.es/12Ag7e

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Mark,

 Looks like the famous Bob Hoover had an awesome predecessor who really knew how to fly the Ford Tri-Motor !

DO NOT MISS seeing this short film showing Harold Johnson at an air show, where he looped, spun and snap rolled a Ford Trimotor during the 1930’s. Johnson reportedly performed 17 consecutive loops during one demon-stration. The film was found in in the archives of HistoricAviation.com

http://theoldmotor.com/?p=69351

 Bill   abq767@comcast.net

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To: DWSkjerven@aol.com
Sent: 12/1/2015 1:04:14 P.M. Central Standard Time
Subj: PILOT'S EYE CANDY

 Dave; Not sure if ORD guys have seen this ? Ken Thomas

PILOT'S EYE CANDY

 Two Minutes of Aviation Majesty

For WW II aviation buffs, this is something to see. If you weren’t able to make it to England July 12-13 at The Imperial War Museum in Cambridgeshire to see it in-person. Sound up, click link, watch full screen, then pass it on to your friends.

   http://player.vimeo.com/video/93587997

 


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